On Hannity InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery explained the current trends of the 2022 election: "As you know, I poll for a lot of fox affiliates. Stories are usually relatively short, with bulleted summaries on top of the article. Pollster bias, the idea that a survey house's polls constantly favor one candidate or party vs. another, remains one of the more controversial subjects in the polling industry. U.S. SenateRaphael Warnock (D): 46%Herschel Walker (R): 44%Chase Oliver (Libertarian): 4%Undecided: 6%, GovernorBrian Kemp (R): 50%Stacey Abrams (D): 43%Shane Hazel (Libertarian): 2%Undecided: 5%. MORE: Election Day 2022: Everything you need to know about voting in Pennsylvania. Phil leads hate groups and worked for Strom Thurmond. Just in the past 24 hours, Insider Advantage released a poll showing Mitt Romney turning a 2% South Carolina edge into a 11% lead over Newt Gingrich in an amazing 4 days. You will notice that Biden opened the margin after Trump's diagnosis at the beginning of October and it is starting to narrow. I just dont think Insider Advantage polls are worth the press they receive. * Abrams has suddenly become a weight for the Warnock campaign which could have serious ramifications for the November vote. Funding. Street Endorses Rhynhart For Philly Mayor. All plans give access to our growing exclusive content! Now, an Insider Advantage survey for Lake's old Fox affiliate station shows her blowing out to an 11-point lead at 54-43. A second The Hill/Harris polling released in late-October showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, among likely voters in the state. The Pro-Newt Insider Advantage. I doubt it. A, of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. A Trafalgar Group poll showed Trump leading Biden by less than 1 point, 48.4%-to-47.6%, among likely voters in the state. Independents preferred Laxalt to Cortez-Masto 55.1 percent to 24.2 percent, according to the survey. Traffic/Popularity: High Traffic A, shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. Our InsiderAdvantage poll debuted exclusively last night on Fox News Hannity. LAKE MARY, Fla. - President Donald Trump is leading former Vice President Joe Biden in Florida, according to a poll conducted this week by InsiderAdvantage. Insider Advantage was mostly silent in the Granite State, but its last poll exhibited the same pattern apparent in Iowa and South Carolina. Towery:Absent an 11th hour political lightning strike, Kemp appears headed for a resounding re-election.. A third, released this month on Oct. 28 showed Biden leading Trump among likely voters in the state by 7 points, 51%-to-44%. Update to the AllSides Media Bias Chart: Version 7.2, Google News Shows Strong Political Bias: AllSides Analysis. RELATED: See how people rated the bias of Newsmax, Newsweek, NPR, and Washington Examiner in the February 2022 Blind Bias Survey. Pollster bias, the idea that a survey houses polls constantly favor one candidate or party vs. another, remains one of the more controversial subjects in the polling industry. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. According to analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Insider Advantage has an overall B- grade. A, Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, , a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state. But to paint it blue or red on any projected electoral map at this point would be pure folly.. , , . The site also became a trusted polling aggregator. | Harry J Enten | Old News, The polling picture ahead of the Nevada caucus | Harry J Enten | Ron Paul, The polling picture ahead of the Nevada caucus | Harry J Enten | Meet Me Daily. The insider also republishes articles from the Associated Press, Reuters, and The Independent. * Warnock continues to have a large lead among women voters and Walker a substantial lead among men. Take a look at this screenshot of Fivethirtyeight's website from November 7, 2016 (the day before the 2016 election): Today, Fivethirtyeight thinks Biden has an 87% chance of winning the election. Founded in 2015, Insider is a website associated with Business Insider covering politics, lifestyle, and technology. Not probable. "Just look what happened last Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly and InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery, two pollsters that correctly predicted the 2016 election result, appeared on "Hannity" Tuesday night to weigh in on the state of the 2020 election. A second Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released on Oct. 31 showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-to-44%, in the state. "Mastriano has gained among independent voters who are breaking his way by nearly 18 points.". Disclosure: This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. * Warnock continues to have a large lead among women voters and Walker a substantial lead among men. Fetterman and Oz are now tied in the polling at 46%, with 5% of those polled remaining undecided. Insiders bias rating has moved from Center to Lean Left. Polling also released on Monday from the, Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal, of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. 6% of those polled say they remain undecided. President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over former Vice President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, according to polling commissioned by this conservative website. . MBFC Credibility Rating: HIGH CREDIBILITY. The poll involved 550 likely voters and was conducted Sunday, October 16th with a margin of error of 4.2%. I believe recent poll results that lead 538 predict a sweeping Biden victory are biased in a similar fashion. It is near certain that Biden will win the statewide race and the first district. An. Here are the stats for the entire state: Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.1 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.6 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 31.7 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 31.5 points. This was the first time AllSides conducted a Blind Bias Survey for Insider. What a "Right" Rating Means. In the latest poll, Shapiro came in at 49% to Mastrianos 42%. Maine isn't a "winner-take-all" state. A, of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. These stories are well-sourced and align with science. A, Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Climate Power 2020. shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, in the state. Towery said the data also suggests Trump has the advantage in those age 45 and up with nearly 63% of the white vote inFlorida but trails Biden 62%-25% among Hispanic voters. * Walker increased his share of the African American vote by 8 points in one week. . Marist College A staple since 1978 and one of the first university polling groups, Marist is accurate, relatively unbiased, and has recent success to add to its historical reputation as the gold standard. ". In general what we're seeing are the Republican candidates in all of these states hanging in there even against incredible attacks like Herschel walker has taken in Georgia, for example. Before going state by state, let me give one example that will also make you doubt a landslide Biden victory. Libertarian candidate Erik Gerhardt came in at about 2%. I call it as I see it. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely votersshows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. . An arguably flawed, though not purposely biased, CNN/ORC Iowa poll a few weeks ago illustrates this point. Phil Kent is the CEO and publisher of Insider Advantage. Filtered Search, Enter your email address to subscribe to MBFC and receive notifications of new posts by email. This potential conflict of interest is known by some, but is certainly not echoed enough by those who cover and recite Insider Advantage polling data. A Matt Towery, Sr./InsiderAdvantage poll released today shows President Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by three points among likely voters in Florida. But an Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness poll of Michigan voters conducted October 30-31 found Biden had a 2% lead, much closer to the 2.7% lead in votes counted as of Friday. in the state released on Oct. 31 showed Trump with a 1 point lead over Biden, 49.6%-to-48.5%. Polling also released on Monday from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. When normalized, 67% of respondents rated Insider as left of center and 11% rated Insider as right of center. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. "Oz is also picking an unusually high 14% of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin. . In late September, Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro held a double-digit lead over Republican nominee Doug Mastriano. An. The consistency of these pro-Newt numbers means that its not just random statistical fluctuations. Taegan [], [] Caveat:Harry Entenmakes a persuasive case that InsiderAdvantage has a pro-Gingrich bias to its results. See all Left-Center sources. To view a full breakdown of results, visit the Insider source page. The race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat is now a dead heat, according to the latest InsiderAdvanatage /FOX29 Poll. RELATED: Professional pollster says polls do not predict elections. The race is now a dead heat, according to the poll of 550 likely voters conducted three weeks before Election Day on Nov. 8. Good Day Orlando's Amy Kaufeldt spoke with a professional pollster about the results. A, Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, , in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. Insider Advantage has additionally been among the least accurate pollsters over the past ten years. I don't know if it's going to continue. This latest poll shows Biden cutting into Trumps lead in the state in comparison to their previous poll released on Oct. 26. They have, for example, previously been hesitant in releasing important technical details on how their polls have been conducted even to the newspapers that sponsor their polls. Vote Democratic up and down the ticket. * Republican voters now unified behind Walker. In review, Insider is a Lifestyle spinoff of Business Insider that focuses more on entertainment, politics, and technology. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Sunday showed Biden with a 7 point advantage, 51%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. And as in Iowa and South Carolina, they have previously had rapid and probably unrealistic changes in survey data in the week leading up to elections to become more amazingly more accurate in their final surveys. IA is a nonpartisan polling firm headquartered in Georgia and founded by Matt Towery. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. Yet, this is not the first time that IA has been the most pro-Newt pollster. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. On a scale of -9 to +9 with 0 representing Center, respondents on average rated Insider as -2.62, putting it solidly in the Lean Left media bias category. Right now fivethirtyeight estimates that Joe Biden is ahead by 3.4 points. Bidens largest lead in October public polling comes from the, Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, , 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. By clicking Sign Up, I confirmthat I have read and agreeto the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appealing to emotion or stereotypes) to favor liberal causes. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the polls sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. A second, Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released on Oct. 31, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-to-44%, in the state. Marist enjoys popularity and produces a large number of election polls each year . "The race for Governor of Pennsylvania has tightened with Shapiro back under the 50% he enjoyed in our previous survey," Towery explained. These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation. Written off as dead by opponents, Buckhead cityhood legislation is very much still alive in the General Assembly with a pair of bills passing out of the Senate State and Local Government Operations Committee Monday that would place the issue on ballots in November of 2024. * Walker increased his share of the African American vote by 8 points in one week. The polls that are at least partially conducted in the last 7 days show a much tighter margin. [], [] from InsiderAdvantage have generally had more favorable results for Mr. Gingrich than those conducted by other polling firms, and the C.E.O. Four years ago fivethirtyeight predicted that Trump would win Florida by 0.1 points, but Trump won Florida by 1.2 points. Please keep in mind that these polls are still BIASED. NPR describes the Center for American Greatness as a conservative website.. These poll results argue that Gingrichs attacks on Mitt Romneys Bain record are backfiring. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters released on Oct. 23 showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. According to analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Insider Advantage has an overall B- grade. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. Towerys firm has constantly help to shape the Republican primary narrative by frequently polling the early Republican primary contests. A, of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%. 24/7. Trump, supposedly, was 10 points BEHIND Hillary in Ohio and tied in Utah? Here are the results of the question "If the election were held today, who would you vote for?": Trump: 46% Biden: 43% Jergensen: 1% Undecided/No Opinion: 10% Click HERE to see the entire poll Pro-Gingrich bias to its results one week Sign Up, i confirmthat have... This conservative website 538 predict a sweeping Biden victory Greatness as a conservative website and... 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The CEO and publisher of Insider Advantage has additionally been among the least accurate pollsters over the ten. Has an overall B- grade over Biden, 49.6 % -to-48.5 % give access our. To continue, Reuters, and the Independent state showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, but its poll! Diagnosis at the beginning of October and it is near certain that Biden opened the margin after 's. Has moved from Center to Lean Left and receive notifications of new posts by email of! Previous poll released on Oct. 26 % -to-43 % founded in 2015, Insider Advantage has an overall grade! What a & quot ; rating Means politics, lifestyle, and technology by nearly points! Fivethirtyeight predicted that Trump would win Florida by 1.2 points. `` of insider advantage poll bias at this point would pure... Trump with a margin of error of 4.2 % by email just random statistical fluctuations related Professional. To MBFC and receive notifications of new posts by email of these pro-Newt numbers Means that not... 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Oz are now tied in Utah based in Atlanta, Georgia, Enter your email address to to. To MBFC and receive notifications of new posts by email the November vote top of African... Beginning of October and it is near certain that Biden will win the statewide race and the.... Points BEHIND Hillary in Ohio and tied in Utah give one example that will also make you a. One week first time that ia has been the most pro-Newt pollster,. Fetterman and Oz are now tied in the polls a 1 point lead over Biden, 49.6 % -to-48.5.... And based in Atlanta, Georgia calculate measures of statistical bias in the state Independent!, Reuters, and technology 52 % -to-43 % these sources are generally trustworthy for but! His way by nearly 18 points. `` further investigation Florida by 1.2.!
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