The same can be said of the directional model with intensity. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 261(1), 194194. A second possible answer is that they will vote for the candidate who belongs to the party with which they identify. Voting requires voters to know the candidates' positions on issues, but when there are several candidates or several parties, it is not very easy for some voters in particular. Thus, voters will vote for candidates who are in the direction (1) and who are going in that direction in the most intense way (2), that is, who propose policies going in that direction in the strongest and most intense way. There is a particular requirement, which is that this way of explaining the voting behaviour of the electoral choice is very demanding in terms of the knowledge that voters may have about different positions, especially in a context where there are several parties and where the context of the political system and in particular the electoral system must be taken into account, because it may be easier for voters to know their positions when there are two parties, two candidates, than when there are, as in the Swiss context, many parties running. On the other hand, the political preferences are exogenous to the political process which is the fact that when the voter goes to vote which is the moment when he or she starts to think about this election, he or she already arrives with certain fixed or prefixed political preferences. Property qualifications. For the sociological model we have talked about the index of political predisposition with the variables of socioeconomic, religious and spatial status. According to them, it is necessary to combine different types of explanations and in particular, in the electoral choice, the components related to proximity, leadership, and also the rather "intensity" leadership, all of which play a significant role in the positioning of candidates and parties. Thus, voters find it easier to assess performance than declared plans during an election campaign. The scientific study of voting behavior is marked by three major research schools: the sociological model, often identified as School of Columbia, with the main reference in Applied Bureau of Social Research of Columbia University, whose work begins with the publication of the book The People's Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944) These theories are called spatial theories of the vote because they are projected. It is a rather descriptive model, at least in its early stages. 0
In the study of electoral behaviour, there is a simple distinction between what is called prospective voting and retrospective voting. There has been a lot of criticism that has allowed the idea of issue voting to develop in a rationalist context and models. For example, there is Lazarsfeld's theory with the idea that opinion leaders can be seen as people to whom we attribute a strong trust and maybe even an esteem in relation to the political judgment they may have and therefore, by discussing with these people, it is possible to form an electoral choice and therefore there is no need to go and pay these costs of gathering information. We worked with a sample of 516 Argentinean adults, aged 18 to 75. How was that measured? There is a whole literature on opinion formation, quite consensually, that says that citizens have a limited capacity to process information. HUr0c:*+ $ifrh
b98ih+I?v1q7q>. This paper examines two models used in survey research to explain voting behavior. This is a very common and shared notion. On the other hand, the intensity directional model better explains the electoral choices of candidates who are not currently in power. In this model, there is a region of acceptability of positional extremism which is a region outside of which the intensity of the positions or the direction shown by a party cannot go because if it goes beyond that region, the voter will no longer choose that party. First, they summarize the literature that has been interested in explaining why voters vary or differ in the stability or strength of their partisan identification. The third criterion is rationality, which is that based on the theory of rational choice, voters mobilize the limited means at their disposal to achieve their goals, so they will choose the alternative among the political offer that costs them the least and brings them the greatest possible benefit. Prospective voting is the one that has been postulated by Downs and by all other researchers who work in proximity models but also in two-way models. These theories are the retrospective voting theories and the theories of ideological space. On the other hand, in rationalist approaches, shortcuts are cognitive shortcuts. Certain developments in the theory of the psycho-sociological model have in fact provided answers to these criticisms. In other words, they are voters who are not prepared to pay all these costs and therefore want to reduce or improve the cost-benefit ratio which is the basis of this electoral choice by reducing the costs and the benefit will remain unchanged. In summary, it can be said that in the economic model of voting, the political preferences of voters on different issues, are clearly perceived by the voters themselves which is the idea that the voter must assess his own interest, he must clearly perceive what are the political preferences of voters. A symbol is evaluated on the basis of two parameters, namely direction (1), a symbol gives a certain direction in the policy and in addition a certain intensity (2) which is to what extent is one favourable or unfavourable to a certain policy. The starting point is that there is a congruence of attitudes between party leaders and voters due to the possibility of exit for voters when the party no longer represents them (exit). Today, when we see regression analyses of electoral choice, we will always find among the control variables social status variables, a religion variable and a variable related to place of residence. In general, they are politically more sophisticated and better educated; those who rely on the opinion of the media and opinion leaders; that of the law of curvilinear disparity proposed by May; the directional model of Rabinowitz and Matthews; Przeworski and Sprague's mobilization of the electorate. is partisan identification one-dimensional? According to Fiorina, identification with a party is not necessarily the result of a long phase of socialization, but it is also the result of evaluations of a certain party, it is the fact of voting for that party that makes it possible to develop a partisan identification. Distance must be taken into account and the idea of mobilizing the electorate must be taken into account. Downs, Anthony. We project voters' preferences and political positions, that is, the positions that parties have on certain issues and for the preferences that voters have on certain issues. There have been several phases of misalignment. Various explanations have been offered over the roughly 70-year history of voting behavior research, but two explanations in particular have garnered the most attention and generated the most debate in the literature on voting behavior. The economic model of the vote puts the notion of electoral choice back at the centre. The 'funnel of causality' provided a convenient framework within which to pursue both a comprehensive program of electoral accounting and a more selective strategy of explanation. The voters choose the candidate whose positions will match their preferences. Voters assess the utility income of parties and candidates. This is more related to the retrospective vote. These authors have tried to say that the different explanatory theories of the vote can be more or less explanatory in the sense of having more or less importance of explanatory power depending on the phases in which one is in a process of alignment and misalignment. Voters will vote for a party but that party is not necessarily the one with which they identify. It is possible to attribute some merits and some criticisms to this model at least in its initial formulation. These studies model individual utility from the election of a preferred party or candidate as decreasing as the alternative deviates from one's ideal point, but differ as to whether this loss should be modeled linearly or quadratically. The Neighborhood Model. Harrop, Martin, and William L. Miller. When you vote, you are taking your personal time and effort to advance the collective good, without any guarantee of personal rewardthe very heart of what it means to be altruistic. xref
The presupposition for spatial theories of voting has already been mentioned, namely the stake vote. In other words, the homing tendency that is the explanation that the model postulates is much less true outside the United States. He wanted to look for one thing and found something else. The reference work is The People's Choice published in 1948 by Lazarsfeld, Berelson and Gaudet. . The law of curvilinear disparity takes up this distinction. 5. A lawmaker's (stochastic) voting behavior is characterized by the relationship between her position in this space and the bill's position [1 . As the authors of The American Voter put But more generally, when there is a campaign, the issues are discussed. Grofman's idea is to say that the voter discounts what the candidates say (discounting) based on the difference between current policy and what the party says it will do or promise. Here, preferences are endogenous and they can change. This table shows that for quite some time now there has been a strong decline in partisan identification. This idea of an issue was not invented by the proponents of the economic model of voting but was already present in the psycho-sociological model. Another model is called the funnel model of causality which has been proposed by these authors working on the psycho-sociological model. Hirschman contrasts the "exit" strategy with the "voice" strategy, which is based on what he calls "loyalty", which is that one can choose not to leave but to make the organization change, to restore the balance between one's own aspirations and what the organization can offer. So there are four main ways. So, voters evaluate the positions of the parties and from these positions, this party is a left-wing party and this party is a right-wing party. Here we see the key factors, namely electoral choice and, at the centre, the identification variable for a party, which depends on two types of factors, namely primary socialization and group membership. When the voter is in the same position, i.e. Iversena proposed a way of classifying the different explanatory theories of voting that allow to add a very important element that has been neglected until now. This jargon comes from this type of explanation. There are different strategies that are studied in the literature. As far as the psycho-sociological model is concerned, it has the merit of challenging the classical theory of democracy which puts the role on the rational actor. That discounting depends on where the policy is right now in relation to what the party is promising, and that is the directional element. There may be one that is at the centre, but there are also others that are discussed. Inking and the role of socialization cause individuals to form a certain partisan identification that produces certain types of political attitudes. Voters try to maximize the usefulness of the vote, that is, they try to vote for the party that makes them more satisfied. All of these factors and their relationships have to be taken into account, but at the centre is always the partisan attachment. The idea of prospective voting is very demanding. Within the ambit of such a more realistic, limited-rational model of human behavior, mitigation outcomes from . Proximity means the closeness of the voter's interests to the political proposals that are made with the parties. Prospective voting says that the evaluation is based on what the parties and candidates are going to say. The utility function of this model is modified compared to the simple model, i.e. Discounting is saying that the voter does not fully believe what the parties say. 0000008661 00000 n
If we look at it a little more broadly, partisan identification can be seen as a kind of shortcut. Hirschman wanted to explain what happens in organizations when they enter a situation of crisis or decline. These are some of the criticisms and limitations often made by proponents of other approaches. The idea was that there were two possible responses that are put in place by members of that organization: one of "exit", to withdraw, to go to another organization. In other words, social, spatial or group membership largely determines individual political actions. The sociological model is somewhat the model that wants to emphasize this aspect. An important factor is the role of political campaigns in influencing the vote. The theoretical criticism consists in saying that in this psychosocial approach or in this vision that the psychosocial model has of the role of political issues, the evaluation of these issues is determined by political attitudes and partisan identification. On the basis of this analysis a behavioral model is constructed, which is then tested on data from a Dutch election survey. It can be defined as lasting feelings of attachment that individuals develop towards a certain party. We see the kinship of this model with the sociological model explaining that often they are put together. Finally, they can vote for the candidate who is most likely in the voters' perception to change things in a way or in a way that leaves them the most satisfied. 0000000636 00000 n
There has been the whole emergence of the rational actor, which is the vote in relation to issues, which is not something that comes simply from our affective identification with a party, but there is a whole reflection that the voter makes in terms of cost-benefit calculations. Contenu disponible en Franais Contenido disponible en espaol Contenuto disponibile in italiano, The distinction between the three main explanatory models of voting is often found. 0000001213 00000 n
These authors find with panel data that among their confirmed hypotheses that extroverted people tend to have a strong and stable partisan identification. Several studies have shown that the very fact of voting for a party contributes to the development of a certain identification for that party. It is a small bridge between different explanations. There is the important opposition between an economic vote based on a choice, which is the idea that the voter makes a real choice based on a cost-benefit calculation, a choice that is rational in the end according to Weber's typology, while the psycho-sociological vote is rather based on a concept of loyalty that often makes the opposition between choice and loyalty. It is the state of the economy that will decide who will win the election or not. The Logics of Electoral Politics. 1.2 Psychology and behavior 9 1.3 Voting behavior and action 13 1.4 Strategies of explanation 14 1.5 Research questions and outline 16 2 The empirical analysis of voting action 19 2.1 Introduction 21 2.2 The Wrzburg school 21 2.3 Lazarsfeld and the empirical analysis of action 23 2.4 The Columbia approach to voting action 26 We leave behind the idea of spatial theories that preferences are exogenous, that they are pre-existing and almost fixed. Nowadays, the internet is the most used communication environment, and therefore it becomes very important to try to determine the behavior of users regarding internet use. 59 0 obj
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For many, voting is a civic duty. In spring of 2021, key people working in homelessness services in Vancouver flew to San Diego to learn about the Alpha Project's model . This article reviews the main theoretical models that explain the electoral behavior sociological model of voting behavior, psychosocial model of voting behavior and rational choice theory , stressing the continuity and theoretical complementarity between them. As for the intensity model, they manage to perceive something more, that is to say, not only a direction but an intensity through which a political party defends certain positions and goes in certain political directions. The premise of prospective voting is too demanding for most voters. Bakker, B. N., Hopmann, D. N., & Persson, M. (2014). Thus, the interpretation of differences in voting behaviour from one group to another is to be sought in the position of the group in society and in the way its relations with parties have developed. A distinction can be made between the simple proximity model, which is the Downs model, and the proximity model with Grofman discounting. The explanatory factors and aspects highlighted by these different models are always taken into account. The presupposition is that voter preferences are not exogenous but are endogenous - they change within the framework of an electoral process. The first answer is that basically, they vote according to their position, according to their social characteristics or according to their socialization, which refers to the sociological model. Even if there is still a significant effect of identification, there are other explanations and aspects to look for, particularly in terms of the issue vote and the assessments that different voters make of the issue vote. However, we see that this is not always true and that there are parties that propose more extreme policies that receive considerable electoral support. to 1/n,and thus the expected utility of voting is proportional to N/n, which is approximately independent of the size of the electorate.3 In the basic rational-choice model of voting and political participation (see Blais 2000 for an overview and many references), the relative util-ity of voting, for a particular eligible voter, is: U = pB . These spatial theories start from the assumption that there is a voter or voters who have political preferences with respect to certain issues, but completely discard the explanation of how these preferences are formed. The simple proximity model is that the voter will vote for the party or parties that are in the same direction. For Fiorina, the retrospective vote is the fact that current policy is fundamental, whereas in the prospective vote it is less so. is premised on the assumption that elections connect the will of the people to the actions of government. Lazarsfeld was interested in this and simply, empirically, he found that these other factors had less explanatory weight than the factors related to political predisposition and therefore to this social inking. The further a party moves in the other direction, the less likely the voter will choose it because the utility function gradually decreases. Pages pour les contributeurs dconnects en savoir plus. the difference in the cost-benefit ratio that different parties give. This theory presupposed that the voter recognizes his or her own interest, assesses alternative candidates, and on the basis of this assessment, will choose for the candidate or party that will be most favourably assessed in the sense of best serving his or her own political interests and interests. Thus, they were well suited not only to develop and test theories of voting behavior, but also to provide an historical record of the considerations shaping the outcomes of specific national elections. Prospective voting says that voters will listen to what candidates and parties have to say. In other words, they propose something quite ecumenical that combines directional and proximity models. Sometimes, indeed often, people combine the first two models incorporating the psycho-sociological model on the basis that the Michigan model is just an extension of the Columbia model that helps explain some things that the Columbia model cannot explain. 0000009473 00000 n
Reinforcement over time since adult voters increasingly rely on this partisan identification to vote and to face the problems of information, namely partisan identification seen as a way of solving a problem that all voters have, which is how to form an idea and deal with the abundance and complexity of the information that comes to us from, for example, the media, political campaigns or others in relation to the political offer. Its weak explanatory power has been criticized, and these are much more recent criticisms in the sense that we saw when we talked about class voting in particular, which from then on saw the emergence of a whole series of critics who said that all these variables of social position and anchoring in social contexts may have been explanatory of participation and voting at the time these theories emerged in the 1950s, but this may be much less true today in a phase or period of political misalignment. Value orientations refer to materialism as well as post-materialism, among other things, cleavages but no longer from a value perspective. Hence the creation of the political predisposition index which should measure and capture the role of social insertion or position in explaining electoral choice. The main explanatory factors have been sought in socio-economic status and socio-demographic variables such as "age," "gender," and "education. 0000003292 00000 n
[10], The third model is called the economic model of the vote or the Rochester School of Economics, developed by Downs in the book An Economic Theory of Democracy published in 1957.[11]. This is an alternative way which is another answer to the question of how to evaluate the position of different parties and candidates. In the spatial theories of the vote, we see the strategic link between a party's supply and a demand from voters or electors. The psychological and socio-economic model are strongly opposed, offering two explanations that are difficult to reconcile, even though there have been efforts to try to combine them. Fiorina also talks about partisan identification, that is to say that there is a possible convergence between these different theories. changes in voting behaviour from one election to the next. Three notions must be distinguished: a phase of political alignment (1), which is when there is a strengthening of partisan loyalties, i.e. There is in fact the idea that the choices and preferences of voters in the centre will cause the parties, since they are aiming in this model, to try to maximize their electoral support. There are several reasons that the authors of these directional models cite to explain this choice of direction with intensity rather than a choice of proximity as proposed by Downs. By finding something else, he shaped a dominant theory explaining the vote. Apart from the combined models, it can be thought that different models may explain differently according to historical moments and phases of a process of political alignment and misalignment just as models may better explain certain types of candidates or according to the profile and type of voters. We are going to talk about the economic model. Voters calculate the cost of voting. The second criticism is the lack of an adequate theory of preference formation. Print. In this perspective, voting is essentially a question of attachment, identity and loyalty to a party, whereas in the rationalist approach it is mainly a question of interest, cognition and rational reading of one's own needs and the adequacy of different political offers to one's needs. A particular configuration is the fact that there are dissatisfied party activists who are extremist compared to voters and elected party leaders. It is no longer a question of explaining "why" people participate but "how", that is, in terms of voter turnout, what choice is made and what can explain an electoral choice. They try to elaborate a bit and find out empirically how this happens. maximum proximity, as the party, his or her utility increases, and when the voter moves away from the party, his or her utility decreases. Merrill and Grofman have proposed unified models that want to get out of this hyper-simplification with respect to spatial theories where one either makes a choice of possibilities or a choice of direction but evacuates any other element such as partisan identification, socialization, social inclusion, economic conditions as well as the role of opinion leaders as seen in the funnel model of Michigan theory. Several studies show that the impact of partisan identification varies greatly from one context to another. This model predicts a convergence of party program positions around two distinct positions, there are two types of convergence. So all these elements help to explain the vote and must be taken into account in order to explain the vote. the earlier Columbia studies, the Michigan election studies were based upon national survey samples. Basic Idea What you are vote choice ; Key foundational studies ; Lazarsfeld, Berelson, Gaudet (1944) The Peoples Choice Berelson, Lazarsfeld, McPhee (1954) Voting These are possible answers more to justify and account for this anomaly. If certain conditions are present, such as good democratic functioning within the party, activists will have the opportunity to exercise "voice" and influence positions. A distinction is often made between two types of voters and votes between the: There are these two types and a whole literature on the different types of euristics that can be set up. There are a whole bunch of individual characteristics related to the fact that one is more of a systematic voter of something else. Finally, there is an instrumental approach to information and voting. This is called retrospective voting, which means that we are not looking at what the parties said in their platforms, but rather at what the parties did before. This refers to the Michigan model, the psycho-sociological model. Proximity models will give certain proximity related answers and the other more recent models offer an alternative answer based on certain criticisms. The choice can be made according to different criteria, but they start from the assumption that there are these voters who arrive in an electoral process that refers to the idea of the hexogeneity of voters' preferences. In other words, the voters' political preferences on different issues, in other words, in this type of theorizing, they know very well what they want, and what is more, these positions are very fixed and present when the voter is going to have to vote. On the other hand, this is true for the directional model; they manage to perceive a policy direction. Hinich and Munger take up the Downs idea but turn it around a bit. The specified . For Iversen, distance is also important. The system in the United States is bipartisan and the question asked was "Do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat or otherwise? p. 31). Some parties have short-term strategies for maximizing voting and others have long-term strategies for social mobilization. Grofman introduces a central element which is the position of the status quo which is not necessarily the neutral point but the current policy. xb```f`` @f8F F'-pWs$I*Xe<
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As far as the proximity model with discounting is concerned, there is a concern when we are going to apply it empirically: we need to be able to determine what the degree of discounting is, how much the voter is going to discount. . Among these bridges, one of the first bridges between the psycho-sociological voting theory and the rationalist theories was made by Fiorina because he considers partisan identification to be an important element in explaining electoral choice. Professor Political Science Buena Vista University Two basic concerns: Turnout ("Who votes?") Key questions: What are the characteristics and attitudes of voters vs. nonvoters? The second criterion is subjectivity, which is that voters calculate the costs and benefits of voting subjectively, so they make an assessment of the costs and benefits. Today, in the literature, we talk about the economic vote in a narrower and slightly different sense, namely that the electoral choice is strongly determined by the economic situation and by the policies that the government puts in place in particular to deal with situations of economic difficulty. In other words, when we are interested in trying to explain the vote, we must already know what type of voter we are talking about. [14] They try to answer the question of how partisan identification is developing and how partisan identification has weakened because they look at the stability over time of partisan identification. In the retrospective model, some researchers have proposed an alternative way of viewing partisan identification as being determined by the position voters take on issues. The problem of information is crucial in the spatial theories of voting and who would need an answer to fully understand these different theories. On the other hand, ideologically extreme voters try to influence party policies through party activism (voice). xxxiii, 178. There was a whole series of critics who said that if it's something rational, there's a problem with the way democracy works. 2, 1957, pp. This electoral volatility, especially in a period of political misalignment, is becoming more and more important and is increasingly overshadowed by this type of explanation. [1] The Lazarsfeld model would link membership and voting. voters who follow a systematic vote are voters who are willing to pay these information or information-related costs. The goal of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the measurement of suicide severity based on the Columbia suicide severity rating scale. Basically, Downs was wrong to talk about proximity logic and to explain some of the exceptions to the proximity model. 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